Chart Analysis · Lesson 21 · Advanced

Reversal chart patterns: the profile library

You can recognize the classic reversal chart patterns and know the entry, stop and target logic for each one via the neckline and pattern height, without forgetting the failure rates.

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From the picture to the trade logic

This is the profile library of the reversal patterns. Each pattern comes with the practical trade logic: where the neckline sits, where the entry forms on the close, where the stop belongs and how you measure the target from the pattern height.

You learn the principle behind them, and above all the honest failure rates, in ct-chartmuster-statistik. No pattern is a guarantee, plan every trade with a stop and position sizing.

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Two highs at a similar level, with an interim low between them. The neckline sits on this interim low. Entry on the close below it, stop above the second high, target the pattern height (high minus neckline) projected downward. Bulkowski shows: the half target is hit far more often than the full one.

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The mirror image at the bottom: two lows, with an interim high between them as the neckline. Entry on the close above the neckline, stop below the second low, target the pattern height upward. Unconfirmed, meaning without a neckline break, it is not a trade.

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Three highs at a similar level instead of two. The neckline sits below the interim lows. The pattern is rarer and the break therefore more meaningful, but be sure to wait for the close below the neckline. Stop above the highest of the three highs.

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Three lows at a similar level, neckline above the interim highs. Entry on the close above it, stop below the lowest of the three lows, target the pattern height upward. As with the triple top: better to trade one pattern too few than one without neckline confirmation.

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Head and shoulders: left shoulder, higher head, lower right shoulder. The neckline connects the two interim lows. Entry on the close below the neckline, stop above the right shoulder, target the distance from head to neckline projected downward. One of the best known patterns, with a real failure rate.

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The inverse head and shoulders is the bottoming formation: a lower head between two shoulders, neckline above the interim highs. Entry on the close above the neckline, stop below the right shoulder, target the head-to-neckline distance upward.

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The rounding bottom is a slow, bowl-shaped turn without a sharp trigger. That makes it harder to trade: there is no clear neckline and no clean pattern-height target. Confirmation is the breakout above the right edge of the bowl, ideally with rising volume.

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Cup and handle is a rounding bottom (the cup) plus a small pullback at the right edge (the handle). Entry on the breakout out of the handle, stop below the handle low, target the depth of the cup projected upward. Cleanly formed it is rare, and here too failure rates exist.

Test yourself

In a double top: where is the neckline whose break triggers the short?

  • On the interim low between the two highs
  • On the line connecting the two highs

Your head-and-shoulders target would be far away at the full pattern height. What is the honest expectation?

  • The half target is statistically more reliable, see ct-chartmuster-statistik
  • The full height is almost always reached

Sign up free for the answers with an explanation for each option.

The key points at a glance

  • The trigger is almost always the close beyond the neckline, never an intraday spike.
  • The price target is the pattern height, measured from the neckline, and it is often more reliable at half height.
  • Every pattern has a failure rate, the real numbers are in ct-chartmuster-statistik.

Deep dive

Which reversal patterns have the lowest failure rates?

The failure rate measures the share of patterns that fail to run even 5 percent in the expected direction after the breakout. Bulkowski measured US stocks on the daily chart, not crypto futures. The ranking is a good compass, the absolute percentages are not.

  • Head and Shoulders Top: only a 4 percent break-even failure rate.
  • Inverse Head and Shoulders: around 3 percent, an average gain of plus 38 percent.
  • Double Bottom (Eve-and-Eve): about a 4 percent failure rate.

Why the half target is often the more honest one

The measure rule projects the full pattern height, but that is reached less often than assumed. On a Head and Shoulders Top only about 55 percent hit the full target, on a Triple Top just 40 to 51 percent depending on the phase.

  • Plan with half the pattern height as a realistic first target.
  • The full height is a bonus, not a planning value.
  • Measured Move: half the move hits over 80 percent, the full move only 35 to 45.

Throwbacks and pullbacks lower the performance

After the neckline break, price often returns to the line: a throwback on the way up, a pullback on the way down. On a Triple Bottom this happens in about 64 percent of cases. The retest takes momentum, such patterns perform worse on average.

  • Avoid patterns with nearby overhead resistance or support.
  • But the retest offers a second entry with a tight stop.
  • Only get on board once the line holds, not while it is being tested.

Sources: Bulkowski, Thomas: Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, TradingFace: Technical and Graphical Analysis, Murphy

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